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A study published in the journal Science on 16 July 2026 found that the drying Aral Sea released about 204 (±53) teragrams of carbon from exposed lakebed sediments between 1960 and 2022.
This has turned the Aral Sea basin from a presumed carbon sink into a net carbon source, with vegetation growth offsetting less than 1% of the emissions.
Researchers, led by Rafael Marce at the Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), used sediment core analysis, in-situ CO2 flux measurements and remote sensing.
The study estimates reflooding the sea could prevent a further 165 (±13) teragrams of carbon release, framing restoration as both an ecological and climate-mitigation opportunity.
A carbon sink absorbs more carbon than it releases (e.g., a healthy lake or forest); a carbon source releases more than it absorbs. The study found the Aral Sea basin's land-use change had been presumed a net sink, but accounting for sediment-based carbon release flips it into a net source.
Simple Analogy: Like a bank account that everyone assumed was accumulating savings (a sink), but a closer audit reveals it has actually been steadily losing money (a source) all along.
GS Paper I (Geography - Water bodies) & GS Paper III (Environment - Climate change, carbon cycle)
The desert that has emerged on the exposed, dried-up bed of the former Aral Sea