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As of 13 September 2026, all-India southwest monsoon rainfall was 14.7% below the Long Period Average, with 24 of 36 meteorological subdivisions more than 10% deficient.
Kharif sowing reached 1,096.5 lakh hectares by 11 September, only 1.4% below last year, but falling fertiliser sales, rising wholesale prices and lower USDA crop forecasts point to a smaller harvest.
The USDA projects India's rice output at 147 million tonnes (from a record 154 mt) and maize at 50 mt (from 55.1 mt).
NOAA gives a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this autumn and winter, which could bring a short, warm winter and hurt rabi crops such as wheat, mustard and pulses.
Global prices are firming as well: the FAO Food Price Index reached 133.3 points in August 2026, its highest since November 2022.
A low-pressure system brings rain when warm, moist surface air rises, cools and condenses into clouds. El Niño is the warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It weakens the trade winds and moisture transport, so even plentiful LPSs can deliver less rain.
Simple Analogy: The rain engines are running, but the fuel line is pinched.
| Season | Main 2026-27 risk | Crops most exposed |
|---|---|---|
| Kharif (monsoon-sown) | Deficient and uneven rain; long dry spells between downpours cut yields even on sown land | Rice, maize, arhar (tur), soyabean |
| Rabi (winter-sown) | A very strong El Niño may bring a short, warm winter | Wheat, rapeseed-mustard, chana, masoor, matar, potato, onion, garlic, jeera, saunf, dhaniya |
Measures monsoon rainfall against the Long Period Average and issues seasonal forecasts
US agency whose Climate Prediction Center issues the monthly ENSO outlook
Publishes world crop production estimates, including its forecasts for Indian rice and maize
Publishes the monthly FAO Food Price Index of international food commodity prices
GS Paper I > Monsoon & El Niño; GS Paper III > Agriculture, Inflation
Economy > Inflation & Agriculture
The long-term average rainfall over a fixed base period, against which IMD measures a season's performance
Abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that weakens trade winds and tends to suppress Indian monsoon rainfall
Total number of days on which low-pressure systems were active over the region in a period