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The United Nations Environment Programme released a report titled 'Limiting Overshoot' on 2 September 2026, its first detailed 'overshoot, peak and decline' pathway.
It concludes that global warming will cross 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels within the next few years, and that the breach is now unavoidable.
Even if every country delivers on its national climate plan and net-zero target, peak warming would reach about 1.8 degrees Celsius; on current policies the world is heading for about 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100.
The report finds that every five years of continued high emissions adds roughly 0.1 degrees Celsius to peak warming, while reversing that same 0.1 degrees Celsius later requires removing about 220 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.
It flags the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Amazon as tipping points at risk, and for the first time places heavy stress on methane.
Overshoot is the scenario in which global average temperature rises past a target threshold, stays above it for a period, and is then brought back down below it. The return is not automatic: it requires net-negative emissions, meaning that more carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere each year than is added. The framing matters because climate policy until now has been organised around avoiding the breach of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This report accepts the breach and shifts the objective to minimising two things instead - how high the peak goes, and how long the world stays above the line. The danger in the framing is moral hazard: an overshoot pathway can be read as permission to delay, which is precisely what the report's asymmetry finding argues against.
Simple Analogy: Missing an exit on a motorway is recoverable. But the further you drive past it, the longer the detour back - and some turnings, once passed, have no return road at all.
Set the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal and the well-below-2-degrees ceiling that this report says will be breached.
Its 'Global Mutirao' decision was the first COP text to concede that a temporary overshoot was likely.
UNEP's long-running annual assessment of the gap between pledges and the emissions path needed; 'Limiting Overshoot' extends that work into the post-breach world.
The ocean circulation system that carries warm water northwards in the Atlantic, named among the tipping elements at risk.
The set of approaches - afforestation, soil carbon, bioenergy with carbon capture, direct air capture - on which any return below 1.5 degrees Celsius depends.
GS Paper 3 > Environment > Climate change, international conventions and reports
General Awareness > Environment and international reports
General Awareness > Environment
"Momentum for Change: Climate Neutral Now" is an initiative launched by
Answer: The UNFCCC Secretariat
"Climate Action Tracker" which monitors the emission reduction pledges of different countries is a :
Answer: Database created by coalition of research organisations
Consider the following statements: Statement I: Article 6 of Paris Agreement... frequently discussed... Statement II: Article 6... sets out principles of carbon markets. Statement III: Article 6... intends to promote inter-country non-market strategies... Which one of the following is correct...?
Answer: Both Statement II and Statement III are correct...
The term 'Intended Nationally Determined Contributions' is sometimes seen in the news in the context of
Answer: plan of action outlined by the countries of the world to combat climate change
With reference to the Agreement at the UNFCCC Meeting in Paris in 2015, which of the following statements is/are correct? 1. The Agreement was signed by all the member countries of the UN and it will go into effect in 2017. 2. The Agreement aims to limit the greenhouse gas emissions so that the rise in average global temperature by the end of this century does not exceed 2°C or even 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 3. Developed countries acknowledged their historical responsibility in global warming and committed to donate $ 1000 billion a year from 2020 to help developing countries to cope with climate change. Select the correct answer using the code given below.
Answer: 2 only
A scenario in which warming exceeds a temperature threshold for a period before being brought back below it.
A state in which more carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere annually than is emitted - a prerequisite for returning below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A threshold beyond which a component of the climate system shifts to a new state in a way that adaptation cannot reverse.
The consensus decision adopted at COP30 in Belem in 2025, the first COP text to concede that a temporary overshoot of 1.5 degrees Celsius was likely.
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Atlantic ocean current system named among the tipping elements at risk.