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Scientists at the University of California, Riverside have developed a method to identify sections of major faults where tectonic strain is accumulating and a future rupture is more likely.
The study, led by Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat, was published in Geophysical Research Letters.
The method uses GPS observations of very small movements of the Earth's surface, analysed by an algorithm that flags fault sections that are locked rather than slipping freely.
Tested on Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula, the model had identified a locked section beneath the peninsula before a major earthquake, and the rupture that followed passed through the same area.
The technique identifies where a rupture may occur, not when — it is a hazard assessment tool, not earthquake prediction.
Tectonic plates move continuously, but some sections of a fault stay locked for decades or centuries while pressure keeps building as the plates push against each other. These locked patches store large amounts of strain, which can release suddenly in a major earthquake.
Simple Analogy: A stuck zip: the teeth hold until the pull is too strong, then give way all at once.
The statute that created the National Disaster Management Authority, the State and District authorities and the National Disaster Response Force, and that anchors earthquake preparedness, mitigation and response in India.
The standards that translate the seismic zoning map into construction requirements; enforcement of these codes, rather than prediction, is the main protection against earthquake loss.
India's nodal agency for monitoring earthquake activity, operating the national seismological network and issuing earthquake information
Apex body for disaster management policy and guidelines, established under the Disaster Management Act, 2005
Monitors and reports global earthquake events and issues aftershock forecasts, including for the 2025 Kamchatka earthquake
Runs India's tsunami early warning centre for the Indian Ocean, the downstream use case for better mapping of subduction-zone rupture areas
GS Paper I > Geophysical phenomena such as earthquakes and tsunamis; GS Paper III > Disaster and disaster management, science and technology
General Awareness > Physical geography, plate tectonics and disaster management bodies
A locked patch on a fault that resists slipping and accumulates tectonic strain, which may be released suddenly as a major earthquake.
A convergent plate boundary where one tectonic plate descends beneath another; these zones produce the largest earthquakes and most destructive tsunamis.
Slow, continuous slip along a fault that releases tectonic energy gradually instead of in a sudden rupture, making the fault harder to assess.