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Four Rajya Sabha replies from the Ministry of Earth Sciences (30 July 2026) together detail India's ocean-observation network (19 subsurface moorings, 302 Argo floats since 2014, tsunami buoys and tide gauges under INCOIS), the Mission Mausam-driven modernisation of weather forecasting, Brahmaputra flood-forecasting infrastructure, and the 2026 El Nino outlook.
Wave-forecast accuracy has improved about 43% since 2014, and INCOIS's coastal forecast system now reaches roughly 70% accuracy; tsunami advisories are issued within the international 10-minute benchmark.
Under Mission Mausam, the Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS) delivers 6 km-resolution forecasts down to Gram Panchayat clusters, accessible via e-Gramswaraj, Meri Panchayat and Mausamgram.
El Nino conditions, weak in June 2026, intensified to moderate by July 2026 and are forecast to strengthen further (potentially to 'very strong') by October-December 2026 — though there is no WMO/IMD-recognised 'Super El Nino' category.
Autonomous ocean-information and early-warning body; operates the coastal observing network and issues tsunami/wave/coastal advisories
National weather forecasting agency; runs the Global Forecast System and BharatFS under Mission Mausam
Issues short-range (up to 24-hour) flood forecasts, including for the Brahmaputra and Barak in Assam
Runs the Mithuna-FS global modelling system
Make India a 'Weather-ready and Climate-smart' nation through better observation, high-resolution NWP models, HPC and AI/ML-based forecasting
Key: ₹2,000 crore, 2-year Central Sector Scheme approved September 2024; delivers Panchayat-level forecasts via BharatFS
Explore deep-sea mineral resources and biodiversity; send a crewed submersible (Matsya 6000) to 6 km depth
Key: Cabinet-approved 2021 at ~₹4,077 crore over five years (phased); ₹600 crore allocated to Samudrayaan in Budget 2025-26
El Nino is classified by the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) — the 3-month running mean sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region — as weak (0.5-0.9°C), moderate (1.0-1.4°C), strong (1.5-1.9°C) or very strong (≥2.0°C). Neither WMO nor IMD recognises a formal 'Super El Nino' category, though the term is used informally in media for the strongest events.
Simple Analogy: It's a thermometer reading for a patch of the Pacific Ocean — the warmer that patch runs for a sustained period, the more severe the El Nino label
GS Paper 1 > Geography (Ocean Currents/Climate); GS Paper 3 > Disaster Management, S&T
High — MoES releases on climate/ocean infrastructure recur frequently in PIB
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services — Hyderabad-based autonomous body under MoES for ocean data and early warnings
Oceanic Nino Index — the standard measure used to classify El Nino/La Nina intensity